Evidence first. Uncertainty visible.
HowSoon is a forecasting and tracking product, not a promise that any milestone will occur on a fixed date. Every forecast is a living estimate designed to move when the evidence moves.
What the progress score means
A progress score is a normalized signal of how far a milestone appears to have moved from its 2020 baseline toward the stated outcome. It is not a probability of success, a scientific consensus, or personal medical advice.
How estimates move
The current model combines observable research momentum, applicable public forecast signals, and milestone-specific forecast ranges. A movement is recorded when newly ingested evidence materially changes the model output.
Why ranges matter
Each milestone has an optimistic, midpoint, and later-date range. The midpoint is the best single estimate; the range is the more honest expression of uncertainty.
What we will keep improving
HowSoon will publish source coverage, freshness, model-version notes, and data limitations as integrations expand. Forecasts should be read as transparent decision-support signals, never as guarantees.