Artificial General Intelligence

An AI system that matches or exceeds human cognitive abilities across all tasks — reasoning, creativity, physical interaction, and autonomous goal pursuit.

Evidence:metaculuspolymarketkalshihuggingface Source refresh pending

50.3%progress

Median Predicted Year

2032

P10: 2028 · P90: 2038

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

7 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 4 new papers in last 30 days. Frontier HLE benchmark at 56.1%.

Automated data refresh

16 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh: Frontier HLE benchmark at 56.1%.

Automated data refresh

23 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 225 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

17 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh:

Automated data refresh

26 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 221 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

Inference scaling

AI-assisted AI research

Massive compute investment

Agentic multi-model systems

What slows it down

Safety alignment unsolved

Energy and compute limits

Physical embodiment

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.