Ai
Live tracking
AI Transforms Drug Discovery (3-Year Pipeline)
AI reduces drug development from 12 years to under 3 years.
Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdaarxiv Source refresh pending
60.9%progress
Median Predicted Year
2030
P10: 2027 · P90: 2035
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
6 days soonerAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 3 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
30 days laterAug 20
Hourly data refresh:
Automated data refresh
7 days soonerAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 29272 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
26 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 28601 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
IsoDDE doubles AlphaFold 3 accuracy
AI-designed drugs in Phase II trials 2026
What slows it down
Clinical trial capacity bottleneck
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.