Society
Live tracking
AI Eliminating Extreme Poverty Globally
AI-driven economic development eliminates extreme poverty globally.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
19%progress
Median Predicted Year
2050
P10: 2035 · P90: 2070
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
No events yet — data refreshes hourly
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
AI improving agriculture, education, healthcare in developing nations
What slows it down
575M still in extreme poverty by 2030 projected
Inequality in AI benefits
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.