AI Runs a Fortune 500 Company

An AI system autonomously manages a Fortune 500 company.

Evidence:metaculusmanifold Source refresh pending

37.3%progress

Median Predicted Year

2035

P10: 2030 · P90: 2042

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

30 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh:

Automated data refresh

6 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 21891 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

27 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 21266 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

AI handling specific C-suite functions already

What slows it down

Legal liability for AI decisions

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.