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AI Passes Adversarial Turing Test
An AI system passes a long, adversarial, informed Turing test.
Evidence:metaculusmanifold Source refresh pending
68.6%progress
Median Predicted Year
2029
P10: 2027 · P90: 2033
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
23 days laterAug 20
Hourly data refresh: Frontier HLE benchmark at 56.1%.
Automated data refresh
7 days soonerAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 231156 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
29 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 228610 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Multimodal models improving
What slows it down
Adversarial evaluators trained to detect AI
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.