Artificial Superintelligence

An AI that surpasses the best human experts in every cognitive domain.

Evidence:metaculuspolymarketmanifold Source refresh pending

37%progress

Median Predicted Year

2035

P10: 2030 · P90: 2045

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

7 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh: Frontier HLE benchmark at 56.1%.

Automated data refresh

14 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 25 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

9 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh:

Automated data refresh

19 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 24 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

Recursive self-improvement post-AGI

Algorithmic breakthroughs

What slows it down

Safety alignment

Regulatory intervention

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.