Longevity
Live tracking
Average Human Lifespan Reaches 100
The global average human lifespan reaches 100 years.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
18.4%progress
Median Predicted Year
2055
P10: 2040 · P90: 2075
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
30 days laterAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 3 active clinical trials.
Automated data refresh
41 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 2 active clinical trials. 75234 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Compounding medical advances
What slows it down
Global inequality in healthcare access
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.