Curing Lung Cancer

Achieving >90% cure rates for lung cancer — the #1 cancer killer globally.

Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdaarxiv Source refresh pending

35%progress

Median Predicted Year

2038

P10: 2030 · P90: 2048

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

52 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 8999 active clinical trials.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

AI immunotherapy improving

Targeted therapies for KRAS mutations

What slows it down

Tumor heterogeneity

Late-stage diagnosis

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.