AI Automates 50% of Cognitive Labor
AI performs at least half of all paid cognitive work at human or better quality.
Hourly data refresh: Frontier HLE benchmark at 56.1%.
Hourly data refresh: 59754 new papers in last 30 days.
Hourly data refresh:
Hourly data refresh: 58994 new papers in last 30 days.
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.