EVs >50% of New Car Sales Globally

Electric vehicles represent more than half of all new car sales globally.

Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending

54.9%progress

Median Predicted Year

2031

P10: 2028 · P90: 2036

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

8 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh:

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

China already >50% in 2026

Battery costs dropping

What slows it down

Charging infrastructure

Emerging market adoption

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.