Longevity
Live tracking
First Human to Live to 150
The first verified human to live to 150 years.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
15.6%progress
Median Predicted Year
2080
P10: 2060 · P90: 2100
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
30 days laterAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 9 active clinical trials.
Automated data refresh
55 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 9 active clinical trials. 35304 new papers in last 30 days.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Sinclair: first 150-yr-old already born
Compounding longevity therapies
What slows it down
Requires LEV to be achieved first
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.