Energy
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Nuclear Fusion Net Energy (Commercial)
Commercial nuclear fusion power plants delivering net energy to the grid.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
29.5%progress
Median Predicted Year
2038
P10: 2030 · P90: 2050
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
No events yet — data refreshes hourly
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
NIF achieved ignition 2022
Commonwealth Fusion targeting 2030s
What slows it down
Engineering challenges beyond physics
Cost competitiveness with renewables
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.