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First Commercial Fusion Power Plant Online
The first commercial fusion power plant delivering electricity to the grid.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
26.6%progress
Median Predicted Year
2040
P10: 2033 · P90: 2055
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
No events yet — data refreshes hourly
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Commonwealth Fusion SPARC targeting 2025-2027
Helion targeting 2028
What slows it down
Engineering challenges beyond physics
Grid integration
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.