Energy
Live tracking
Global Temperature Stabilized at 1.5°C
Global average temperature stabilizes at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
16%progress
Median Predicted Year
2060
P10: 2040 · P90: 2080
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
No events yet — data refreshes hourly
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Renewable energy transition
Carbon capture at scale
What slows it down
Currently tracking toward 2.5-3°C
Geopolitical coordination failures
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.