Medicine
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Curing HIV/AIDS Completely
A complete, sterilizing cure for HIV.
Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdaarxiv Source refresh pending
42.3%progress
Median Predicted Year
2034
P10: 2028 · P90: 2042
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
28 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 30 active clinical trials.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Functional cures achieved in small numbers
Gene editing of HIV reservoirs advancing
What slows it down
HIV reservoir persistence
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.