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Humans on Mars (First Landing)
The first human beings set foot on Mars.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
44.2%progress
Median Predicted Year
2033
P10: 2029 · P90: 2040
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
6 days soonerAug 20
Hourly data refresh:
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
SpaceX Starship in testing
Elon Musk targeting 2029
What slows it down
Radiation exposure
Life support systems
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.