Robotics
Live tracking
Level 5 Fully Autonomous Driving (Global)
Consumer vehicles that drive themselves anywhere, in any condition.
Evidence:arxivmetaculus Source refresh pending
24.3%progress
Median Predicted Year
2042
P10: 2035 · P90: 2060
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
No events yet — data refreshes hourly
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Waymo/Zoox L4 data accumulation
AI reasoning improvements
What slows it down
100% deterministic processing requirement
Edge cases: unmapped roads, extreme weather
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.