Liquid Biopsy Detecting All Cancers Stage 1

A blood test that detects all major cancers at Stage 1.

Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdaarxiv Source refresh pending

58.1%progress

Median Predicted Year

2031

P10: 2027 · P90: 2038

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

7 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 339 active clinical trials.

Automated data refresh

54 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 334 active clinical trials.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

Grail/Galleri test detects 50+ cancers

AI improving sensitivity

What slows it down

False positive rates

Sensitivity at Stage 1 still limited

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.