Longevity Escape Velocity

The tipping point where medical advances extend human lifespan faster than we age.

Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdametaculusarxiv Source refresh pending

47.4%progress

Median Predicted Year

2033

P10: 2029 · P90: 2040

Time to Median Prediction

Syncing countdown…

Progress Index Over Time

Proprietary progress score

Prediction Range

P10 / Median / P90 estimates

expertmarketmodel

Why It Moved — Recent Events

13 days laterAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 27 active clinical trials.

Automated data refresh

6 days soonerAug 20

Hourly data refresh: 27 active clinical trials. 19 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

38 days soonerJul 30

Hourly data refresh: 26 active clinical trials. 18 new papers in last 30 days.

Automated data refresh

Accelerators & Bottlenecks

What speeds it up

AI-accelerated drug discovery

CRISPR gene therapy advances

Yamanaka factor partial reprogramming

What slows it down

Regulatory approval timelines

Cancer risk from cellular reprogramming

Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.