Medicine
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Curing Type 1 Diabetes
A functional cure for Type 1 diabetes — restoring insulin independence.
Evidence:clinicaltrialsopenfdaarxiv Source refresh pending
55.1%progress
Median Predicted Year
2031
P10: 2027 · P90: 2038
Time to Median Prediction
Syncing countdown…
Progress Index Over Time
Proprietary progress score
Prediction Range
P10 / Median / P90 estimates
expertmarketmodel
Why It Moved — Recent Events
7 days soonerAug 20
Hourly data refresh: 9 active clinical trials.
Automated data refresh
24 days soonerJul 30
Hourly data refresh: 9 active clinical trials.
Automated data refresh
Accelerators & Bottlenecks
What speeds it up
Vertex stem cell therapy showing complete insulin independence in trials
What slows it down
Autoimmune recurrence
Forecast methodology: Progress % and predicted years are computed by our proprietary algorithm combining real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), expert forecasts weighted by Brier score accuracy, and hard data trend extrapolation using S-curves fitted to clinical trial progression (ClinicalTrials.gov), AI benchmark scores (HuggingFace), publication velocity (arXiv), and drug approvals (openFDA). P10/P50/P90 represent optimistic, median, and pessimistic scenarios. Updated hourly.